• [Irish Mirror Icon]
• News
• Irish News
• Met Eireann

Ireland weather: Red card for summer as Met Eireann eyes gamechanger over six day window

Met Eireann has spotted a major weather transition on the horizon

[1_JS414698297.jpg]

View Image

A general view of Portmarnock Strand, Dublin, earlier this month.(Image: Conor Mearin / Collins Photo Agency)

Summer may still have some life left in it, but Met ireanns latest extended-range forecast has identified the week when Ireland is expected to enter a more recognisably autumnal weather pattern.

According to the national forecasters latest outlook, the key period is Monday, August 31 to Sunday, September 6 the first week of September and the point at which Met ireann says the seasonal transition from summer to autumn is expected to take place.

The forecast describes conditions during that week as generally mild and changeable, with temperatures signalled to remain above average and rainfall expected to be slightly higher than normal. It is this combination of a more unsettled pattern and the timing at the beginning of September that marks what could be regarded as the weather transition into autumn.

However, there is an important caveat. Met ireann is not predicting that summer will suddenly end on August 31. Instead, its extended-range forecast identifies the period in which seasonal conditions are expected to become more autumn-like. The service itself stresses that forecasts beyond a week carry considerably less certainty than shorter-range forecasts because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.

That uncertainty is particularly significant for the August 31 to September 6 period. Met ireann says there are no clear signals for either high or low pressure, meaning confidence in the detailed forecast is very low and the outlook instead reverts to climatology. Even so, the broad seasonal signal points towards mild, changeable conditions, above-average temperatures and slightly wetter-than-average weather.

The forecast for the preceding week, August 24 to 30, is also far from a dramatic end to summer. Confidence is already lower by that stage, with temperatures expected to be close to average overall, although coastal areas in the south and east could be somewhat warmer than normal. Rainfall is signalled to be near or slightly above average in the south and east, while drier conditions are indicated for western and northwestern areas.

Looking further ahead, Met ireanns seasonal outlook for September, October and November suggests that temperatures across the three-month period are likely to average between 0.5C and 1.0C above normal. September itself could be normal or slightly drier than normal, while the signal becomes wetter and more unsettled during October and November.

So while August 31 cannot be treated as a precise last day of summer, the latest Met ireann outlook places the first week of September firmly in the spotlight as the period when Irelands weather is expected to make its seasonal transition towards autumn.

And with above-average temperatures still signalled, autumn may arrive but it certainly does not look as though summer will disappear overnight.

Met Eireann extended range forecast:

Week 1 Monday 17th August to Sunday 23rd AugustHigh pressure is signalled to be centred in the mid-North Atlantic with lower pressure signalled over Scandinavia.Generally warmer than average temperatures will continue across much of the country, with the strongest signalcovering southern and southeastern parts. Temperatures are signalled to be closer to average in parts of the westand northwest. Drier than normal conditions look set to prevail across the midlands, south and west while near-toabove-average rainfall is expected in the north and northeast, indicating the influence of the afore-mentioned lowpressure.

Week 2 Monday 24th August to Sunday 30th AugustConfidence in the forecast lowers into Week 2. There is a weak signal for higher than normal pressure to thenorthwest of Ireland and lower than normal pressure over continental Europe. Rainfall is signalled to be near toslightly above average in the south and east, with drier than normal conditions signalled in the west andnorthwest. Temperatures look likely to be close to average overall, perhaps a little warmer than normal in coastalparts of the south and east.

Week 3 Monday 31st August to Sunday 06th SeptemberThere are no clear preferences towards high or low pressure in Week 3 so confidence in the forecast is very lowand reverts to climatology. Seasonal conditions are generally mild and changeable as the transition from summerto Autumn takes place. Above average temperatures are signalled along with slightly wetter than averageconditions.

Week 4 Monday 07th September to Sunday 13th SeptemberSignals remain weak into week 4, although there is a very weak signal for relatively high pressure over theEuropean continent. Again, climatology seems like the most likely outcome at this stage with generally mild andchangeable conditions. Temperatures

Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news from the Irish Mirror direct to your inbox: Sign up here.

[Irish Mirror Icon]

ENJOYED THIS STORY?

Choose Irish Mirror as a 'Preferred Source' on Google News for quick access to the news you value.