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Super El Nino and record sea temperatures loom as impact on UK weather revealed

Weather forecasters warn that the brewing 'Super El Nio' has the potential to turbocharge heat across the planet, raising fears of more extreme weather hitting the UK

Brits could face another period of weather chaos as scientists warn a looming "Super El Nio" could push temperatures to record-breaking levels.

Forecasters say the climate pattern - caused by rising waters in the Pacific Ocean - has the potential to turbocharge heat across the planet, raising fears of more extreme weather hitting the UK. A Super El Nio occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise at least 2C above average

The Met Office has warned there is growing confidence El Nio conditions could strengthen significantly, with some experts comparing the developing system to some of the most powerful events ever recorded. And although El Nio starts thousands of miles away, it can still influence Britain's weather patterns.

[The 2016 El Nio event shows a globe shaded red to suggest unusually high sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific]

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A map of the 2016 El Nio shows a globe shaded red to indicate unusually high sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific(Image: NOAA)

A Super El Nio is now expected to form between this month and July. The European Union's climate monitor has said ocean temperatures are now edging toward record highs as conditions shift toward a potentially powerful El Nino weather pattern.

Samantha Burgess, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said sea surface temperatures in recent days were just shy of the all-time highs of 2024. "It's a matter of days before we are back in record-breaking ocean SSTs (sea surface temperatures) again," Burgess said.

[LAKE TABOURIE, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 04: Residents look on as flames burn through bush on January 04, 2020 in Lake Tabourie, Australia. A state of emergency has been declared across NSW with dangerous fire conditions forecast for Saturday, as more than 140 bushfires continue to burn. There have been eight confirmed deaths in NSW since Monday 30 December. 1365 homes have been lost, while 3.6 million hectares have been burnt this fire season. (Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)]

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Dry weather could lead to possible forest fires in some countries (file image)(Image: Getty Images)

According to the Met Office, strong El Nio events have previously been linked to an increased chance of colder and drier UK winters - while also disrupting global weather systems that can fuel heatwaves and extreme rainfall elsewhere.

Scientists say the biggest issue El Nio brings is the extra heat it releases into the atmosphere on top of human-driven climate change.

Places closest to the unusually warm Pacific can suffer more significant impacts. Countries in the west Pacific, such as Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines, could become drier than normal, leading to possible droughts and forest fires.

Countries in South America, such as Peru and Ecuador, could meanwhile see much wetter weather, leading to devastating floods.

[ILHEUS, BRAZIL - DECEMBER 28: Villagers remain in boats in the flooded roads of their town on December 28, 2021 in Ilheus, Brazil. Floods caused by heavy rains are affecting 40 cities of Northern state of Bahia, leaving at least 18 dead and displacing over 35,000. (Photo by Laura Lopes/Getty Images)]

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El Nio could spark flooding in some parts of the world (file image)(Image: Getty Images)

The effects of El Nio can be felt much further away, with the climate pattern bringing weaker monsoons to India and flooding winter rainfall in the south-west US.

In the UK, weather conditions can often lag behind the actual event. El Nio could bring higher temperatures throughout the summer period, but Brits may feel the impacts more stongly during the later winter months.

According to climate scientists at the Met Office, El Nio years are "one factor that can increase the risk of colder winters in the UK".

[MOUNT ADRAH, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 10: Rural FIre Service firefighters conduct property protection patrols at the Dunn Road fire on January 10, 2020 in Mount Adrah, Australia. NSW is bracing for severe fire conditions, with high temperatures and strong winds forecast across the state. There are about 135 fires burning in NSW, 50 of which are uncontained. 20 people have died in the bushfires across Australia in recent weeks, including three volunteer firefighters. About 1995 homes have been destroyed and another 816 have been damaged across NSW. (Photo by Sam Mooy/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX ***]

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Places closest to the unusually warm Pacific can suffer more significant impacts (file image)(Image: Getty Images)

Last month, the Met Office warned current projections suggest the El Nio could become a strong event, "potentially comparable with some of the most impactful episodes in recent decades".

"El Nio events often peak towards the end of the year, with maximum influence typically felt between November and February," the forecaster said. "There is growing confidence that this event could sit at the upper end of the historical range."

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