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The Derby: Can 2,000 Guineas flop City Of Troy win despite recent setback?

Hailed as a wonder horse, City of Troy was a huge flop in the colts' Classic at Newmarket over a mile but remains the bookies' favourite for the Derby at Epsom on June 1

[City Of Troy will head to Derby after Guineas flop]

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City Of Troy will head to Derby after Guineas flop(Image: Getty Images)

We've got just one recognised Derby trial to go - the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York on Thursday.

Chester has come and gone, further Epsom hopefuls were on parade at Lingfield on Saturday and Leopardstowns Derby Trial, which threw up the first three Derby heroes of this century, was run on Sunday.

And yet the horse who heads the market for the great race is the one who ran in the 2,000 Guineas - and beat just two home at Newmarket - City Of Troy .

How can you possibly back a horse who ran so badly to land a race many of us still regard as the greatest in the world? DAVID YATES examines the case for the prosecution - and the defence. THE PROSECUTION Remember Billy Martin, ladies and gentlemen of the jury? Niklas Kulti? No? OK, but surely youre familiar with Donald Young?

Im teasing. They were all winners of the Boys Singles at Wimbledon. But that, as far as most of us who tune into watching tennis four times a year are concerned, was that.

Yes, Ivan Lendl, Pat Cash and Roger Federer all won the tournament as youths, but the fact is plain that theres a huge gulf between reaching the top of the mountain as a junior, and doing it as an adult.

Its the same with horses. How many times have we hailed a star two-year-old only to realise the horse wasnt the second coming, but merely way ahead of his peers at that particularly - nascent - stage of his development.

Hes something we havent had before, said Aidan OBrien of a Dewhurst victor. The size of him and the scope and the way he travelled. When you let him go, he delivers.

That horse was Air Force Blue. He won by three and a quarter lengths at Newmarket - the final of junior Wimbledon without dropping a set - but he couldnt even hold his serve at three, beating four out of 42 opponents in four races during his Classic campaign.

[City Of Troy ]

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City Of Troy (Image: Getty Images)

The biggest certainty was that OBrien would accept - and not deflect - the blame after City Of Troy had crossed the line a sorry ninth of the 11 runners in the 2,000 Guineas.

He treated the colt too much like a god during the winter months, balking from asking him to do serious hard work, with the effect that City Of Troy over-raced during the early furlongs over the Rowley Mile, leaving nothing for the climb to the winning post.

OBrien further claimed City Of Troy had become upset in the stalls. Watch the replay. He was in there for about a second. Pay no heed to these words: trainers do it all the time.

Paddock watchers at Newmarket agreed on one thing: City Of Troy hadnt grown much during the winter, and several rivals towered over him.

He was peerless at two, but hes an also-ran at three. Justifys early stats as a stallion suggest the flame can burn brightly, but not necessarily for long.

You need a horse at the top of his game to win the Derby. Yes, this may look an open year, but dont be fooled into thinking it will be an easy one.

It never is, and City Of Troy wont win it. THE DEFENCE Its not often the F word comes out in racing - everyone knows that to use it is to set yourself up for a fall - but there were comparisons with Frankel after City Of Troy romped away with the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket last October.

He really is our Frankel, said Michael Tabor, one of the Coolmore partners who owns the son of Justify, whose trainer has smashed every record in racing like plates at a Greek wedding.

I was in the press huddle that October afternoon, and nobody laughed. Not just because Tabors Paddington Bear stare is discomforting, but because here was a colt, by an American Triple Crown winner out of a Group 1 Fillies Mile heroine, who had given an explosive performance in the signature juvenile race of the British season.

Tabor is no fool. He has seen the sport from every conceivable angle, isnt a man given to rash statements and his words, borne out by decades of involvement in the sport, came from the heart.

Of course, Frankel won the 2,000 Guineas back in 2011 by six lengths, while City Of Troy was beaten 17 lengths in ninth.

[Aidan O'Brien (left) with City Of Troy and work rider Dean Gallagher at his Ballydoyle yard on Monday]

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Aidan O'Brien (left) with City Of Troy and work rider Dean Gallagher at his Ballydoyle yard on Monday

Laugh at OBriens excuses, if you must. But, as you do, remember the name Auguste Rodin.

Like City Of Troy, he was Ballydoyles star youngster of 2022, and he beat just two home as the favourite for last years 2,000 Guineas.

They mocked his trainers assertion that stablemate Little Big Bear had galloped into Auguste Rodin at the start of the race, and guffawed at his suggestions the colt had a B.A. Baracus-style fear of flying.

But four weeks after the Guineas Auguste Rodin and Ryan Moore charged down the straight at Epsom to overhaul King Of Steel and hammer out the unsightly dent in his reputation.

It was a record ninth Derby triumph for OBrien, who does things other trainers cant. Thats why hes the best theres ever been.

City Of Troys Guineas flop was a blip, an outlier. He was, and remains, a colt of the highest quality and, while he wasnt the pick of the paddock at Newmarket, he hasnt shrunk.

If anything, his compact build will be an asset round Epsoms rollercoaster, where size does matter. The irrefutable evidence from within the last year is that OBrien can bring horses back from the abyss, and he can do it again on June 1. VERDICT Everything in betting is related to the odds. If you backed City Of Troy at 7-1 after the Guineas, youre no doubt glad to see him leading the Derby betting at less than half those odds.

But we cant turn back the clock. City Of Troy IS the Derby favourite, and youre taking far too much on trust to invest your hard-earned at those odds.

OBrien is a master of his trade. Of that theres no doubt. But was Auguste Rodin a rabbit he routinely pulls out of a hat, or the exception that proves the rule?

Backing City Of Troy to win the Derby is effectively taking 3-1 that lightning will strike twice.

And we all know the odds of that happening - even where OBrien is concerned - should be much greater.

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