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Probability distribution

Contents
General probability definition
    Discrete probability distributions
Cumulative distribution function
Discrete probability distribution
    Dirac delta representation
Other kinds of distributions
    Linear growth (e.g. errors, offsets)
    Exponential growth (e.g. prices, incomes, populations)
    Uniformly distributed quantities
    Bernoulli trials (yes/no events, with a given probability)
    Categorical outcomes (events with Beta distribution, for a single probability (real number between 0 and 1); conjugate to the Bernoulli distribution and binomial distribution Gamma distribution, for a non-negative scaling parameter; conjugate to the rate parameter of a Poisson distribution or exponential distribution, the precision (inverse variance) of a normal distribution, etc. Dirichlet distribution, for a vector of probabilities that must sum to 1; conjugate to the categorical distribution and multinomial distribution; generalization of the beta distribution Wishart distribution, for a symmetric non-negative definite matrix; conjugate to the inverse of the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution; generalization of the gamma distribution Some specialized applications of probability distributions
Fitting
See also
    Lists
References
    Citations

Part of a series on statistics
Probability theory
X⁠ that equals ⁠1/2⁠ to X = 1 and probability X = 0. Viewed as a probability measure, the distribution of P(X∈A) to each set P(X∈{0,1})=1, and  Ω , is the set of all possible outcomes of a random phenomenon being observed. The sample space may be any set of numbers, vectors, labels, or whatever else. For example, the sample space of a coin flip could be {</nowiki>}}\"heads\", \"tails\"{{big|<nowiki>}</nowiki>}}}} "}},"i":0}}]}'/>Ω = {"heads", "tails"} , whereas for a die roll, it could be {</nowiki>}}1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6{{big|<nowiki>}</nowiki>}}}} "}},"i":0}}]}'/>Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} .

To define probability distributions for the specific case of random variables (so that the sample space can be mapped to a measurable space, for example the real numbers), it is common to distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables. In the discrete case, it is sufficient to specify a probability mass function "6", corresponding to the number of dots on the die, has probability a in the cumulative distribution equals the area under the probability density curve up to the point x. The cumulative distribution function is the area under the probability density function from f of a random variable x — that is X lies in a given interval can be computed rigorously by integrating the probability density function over that interval.

General probability definition

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Let X:Ω→E be a P onto (E,ℰ) is given by (E,ℰ) (in general different from P:𝒜→ℝ whose input space P can take as argument subsets of the sample space itself, as in the coin toss example, where the function P(tails) = 0.5. However, because of the widespread use of random variables, which transform the sample space into a set of numbers (e.g., P(X∈E) the probability that a certain value of the variable P(X∈E)≥0∀E∈𝒜, so the probability is non-negative

  • P(X∈⋃iEi)=∑iP(X∈Ei) for any countable disjoint family of sets X is the set of possible outcomes, P is the probability function, or probability measure, that assigns a probability to each of these measurable subsets E, occurs.
  • Cumulative distribution function: function evaluating the probability that x such that, with probability x.
  • Discrete probability distributions

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    • Discrete probability distribution: for many random variables with finitely or countably infinitely many values.
    • Probability mass function (pmf): function that gives the probability that a discrete random variable is equal to some value.
    • Frequency distribution: a table that displays the frequency of various outcomes x.
    • Tail: the regions close to the bounds of the random variable, if the pmf or pdf are relatively low therein. Usually has the form a"}}'>X>a, P(X<x)=q.
    • Variance: the second moment of the random variable about its mean; an important measure of the dispersion of the distribution.
    • Standard deviation: the square root of the variance, and hence another measure of dispersion.
    • Symmetry: a property of some distributions in which the portion of the distribution to the left of a specific value (usually the median) is a mirror image of the portion to its right.
    • Skewness: a measure of the extent to which a pmf or pdf "leans" to one side of its mean. The third standardized moment of the distribution.
    • Kurtosis: a measure of the "fatness" of the tails of a pmf or pdf. The fourth standardized moment of the distribution.

    Cumulative distribution function

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    X with regard to a probability distribution F(x) is non-decreasing;
  • limx→−∞F(x)=0 and F:ℝ→ℝ that satisfies the first four of the properties above is the cumulative distribution function of some probability distribution on the real numbers.

    Any probability distribution can be decomposed as the mixture of a discrete, an absolutely continuous and a singular continuous distribution, and thus any cumulative distribution function admits a decomposition as the convex sum of the three according cumulative distribution functions.

    Discrete probability distribution

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    p(S) specifies the probability distribution for the sum P(X>9)=1/12+1/18+1/36=1/6, and all other probabilities in the distribution. Figure 4: The probability mass function of a discrete probability distribution. The probabilities of the singletons {1}, {3}, and {7} are respectively 0.2, 0.5, 0.3. A set not containing any of these points has probability zero. Figure 5: The cdf of a discrete probability distribution, ... Figure 6: ... of a continuous probability distribution, ... Figure 7: ... of a distribution which has both a continuous part and a discrete part

    A discrete probability distribution is the probability distribution of a random variable that can take on only a countable number of values (almost surely) which means that the probability of any event A is a countable set with p(n)=12n for F(x)=P(X≤x)=∑ω≤xp(ω). The points where the cdf jumps always form a countable set; this may be any countable set and thus may even be dense in the real numbers.

    Dirac delta representation

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    A discrete probability distribution is often represented with Dirac measures, also called one-point distributions (see below), the probability distributions of deterministic random variables. For any outcome ω. Given a discrete probability distribution, there is a countable set p. If PX=∑ω∈Ap(ω)δω.

    Similarly, discrete distributions can be represented with the Dirac delta function as a generalized probability density function P(X∈E)=∫Ef(x)dx=∑ω∈Ap(ω)∫Eδ(x−ω)=∑ω∈A∩Ep(ω) for any event u0,u1,… be the values it can take with non-zero probability. Denote X takes any value except for X(ω)=∑iui1Ωi(ω) except on a set of probability zero, where X has a one-point distribution if it has a possible outcome x to 1 at

    An absolutely continuous probability distribution is a probability distribution on the real numbers with uncountably many possible values, such as a whole interval in the real line, and where the probability of any event can be expressed as an integral. More precisely, a real random variable I=[a,b]⊂ℝ the probability of f over X to take any single value [a,b] is replaced by any measurable set F has the form X with regard to the distribution

    In the measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory, a random variable is defined as a measurable function (𝒳,𝒜). Given that probabilities of events of the form X∗ℙ of X∗ℙ=ℙX−1.

    Other kinds of distributions

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    Figure 8: One solution for the Rabinovich–Fabrikant equations. What is the probability of observing a state on a certain place of the support (i.e., the red subset)?

    Absolutely continuous and discrete distributions with support on γ:[a,b]→ℝn within some space O a subset of the support; if the probability measure exists for the system, one would expect the frequency of observing states inside set [t2,t3], which might not happen; for example, it could oscillate similar to a sine, F=αFdiscrete+βFac+γFsingular where coefficients F(x)=∫−∞xf(t)dt. The set of values with non-zero probability density has Lebesgue measure greater than zero.

  • Singular continuous: The CDF is continuous everywhere, but its derivative is zero almost everywhere (with respect to Lebesgue measure). The probability is concentrated on a set of measure zero (e.g., the Cantor set). A classic example is the Cantor distribution.
  • Most standard distributions in statistical applications are either purely discrete ([0, 1). These random variates 0 < p < 1, define X has a Bernoulli distribution with parameter F be the generalized left inverse of F(p) ≤ x if and only if [0, 1], then the cumulative distribution function of λ — that is, with cumulative distribution function Finv(u)=−1λln⁡(1−u), and if X=−1λln⁡(1−U) has an exponential distribution with parameter

    The concept of the probability distribution and the random variables which they describe underlies the mathematical discipline of probability theory, and the science of statistics. There is spread or variability in almost any value that can be measured in a population (e.g. height of people, durability of a metal, sales growth, traffic flow, etc.); almost all measurements are made with some intrinsic error; in physics, many processes are described probabilistically, from the kinetic properties of gases to the quantum mechanical description of fundamental particles. For these and many other reasons, simple numbers are often inadequate for describing a quantity, while probability distributions are often more appropriate.

    The following is a list of some of the most common probability distributions, grouped by the type of process that they are related to. For a more complete list, see list of probability distributions, which groups by the nature of the outcome being considered (discrete, absolutely continuous, multivariate, etc.)

    All of the univariate distributions below are singly peaked; that is, it is assumed that the values cluster around a single point. In practice, actually observed quantities may cluster around multiple values. Such quantities can be modeled using a mixture distribution.

    Linear growth (e.g. errors, offsets)

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    • Normal distribution (Gaussian distribution), for a single such quantity; the most commonly used absolutely continuous distribution

    Exponential growth (e.g. prices, incomes, populations)

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    Uniformly distributed quantities

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    Bernoulli trials (yes/no events, with a given probability)

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    Categorical outcomes (events with

    Some specialized applications of probability distributions

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    • The cache language models and other statistical language models used in natural language processing to assign probabilities to the occurrence of particular words and word sequences do so by means of probability distributions.
    • In quantum mechanics, the probability density of finding the particle at a given point is proportional to the square of the magnitude of the particle's wavefunction at that point (see Born rule). Therefore, the probability distribution function of the position of a particle is described by a ≤ x ≤ b in dimension one, and a similar triple integral in dimension three. This is a key principle of quantum mechanics.
    • Probabilistic load flow in power-flow study explains the uncertainties of input variables as probability distribution and provides the power flow calculation also in term of probability distribution.
    • Prediction of natural phenomena occurrences based on previous frequency distributions such as tropical cyclones, hail, time in between events, etc.

    Fitting

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    (Pn) is said to converge weakly (or in distribution) to a probability distribution A whose boundary has F if F is continuous.

    This concept is essential for the Central limit theorem, which states that the probability distribution of the standardized sum of independent and identically distributed random variables converges to the standard normal distribution, regardless of the underlying distribution of the individual variables.

    See also

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    Lists

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    References

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    Citations

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    Billingsley, Patrick (1995). Probability and Measure (3rd ed.). New York: Wiley. pp. 183–184. ISBN 0-471-00710-2.
  • ↑ DeGroot, Morris H.; Schervish, Mark J. (2002). Probability and Statistics. Addison-Wesley.
  • ↑ Everitt, Brian; Skrondal, Anders (2010). The Cambridge dictionary of statistics (4th ed.). Cambridge, UK ; New York: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-76699-9.
  • ↑ Chapters 1 and 2 of Vapnik (1998)
  • ↑ More information and examples can be found in the articles Heavy-tailed distribution, Long-tailed distribution, fat-tailed distribution
  • ↑ Cohn, Donald L. (1993). Measure theory. Birkhäuser.
  • ↑ Rosenthal, Jeffrey (2000). A First Look at Rigorous Probability Theory. World Scientific.
  • ↑ Chapter 3.2 of DeGroot & Schervish (2002)
  • ↑ Kolmogorov, Andrey (1950) [1933]. Foundations of the Theory of Probability. New York, USA: Chelsea Publishing Company. pp. 21–24.
  • ↑ Rabinovich, M.I.; Fabrikant, A.L. (1979). "Stochastic self-modulation of waves in nonequilibrium media". J. Exp. Theor. Phys. 77: 617–629. Bibcode:1979JETP...50..311R.
  • ↑ Section 1.9 of Billingsley, Patrick (1995). Probability and Measure (3rd ed.). Wiley. pp. 181–182. ISBN 0-471-00710-2.
  • 1 2 3 Chang, Raymond; Thoman, John W. (2014). Physical Chemistry for the Chemical Sciences. [Mill Valley, California]: University Science Books. pp. 403–406. ISBN 978-1-68015-835-9. OCLC 927509011.
  • ↑ Van der Vaart, A. W. (1998). Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge University Press. pp. 2–3. ISBN 978-0-521-78450-4.
  • ↑

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