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'City-killing' asteroid odds of smashing Earth change again in NASA update

YR4 2024 had a one in 32 chance of smashing into the Earth last week and was considered the 'riskiest' space rock ever discovered by boffins that could destroy a whole city

[YR4 2024 was discovered in December last year]

YR4 2024 was discovered in December last year(Image: Getty Images/iStockphoto)

A massive update on the 'city-killer' asteroid loitering with intent somewhere in the Universe has been issued by NASA. YR4 2024 was the riskiest asteroid ever detected by humans, which had a one in 32 chance of smashing into Earth last week.

NASA has now revealed that the giant space rock has only a one in 26,000 chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. Meaning, there is a 99.9961% chance the asteroid will pass by the planet without incident.

But what would happen if the plucky space rock roughly the size of the Statue of Liberty beat the odds and crashed into the Earth.

[The 'city-killer' was captured on a telescope]

The 'city-killer' was captured on a telescope(Image: Catalina Sky Survey/LPL/Dr. Wierzchos/Bryce Bolin)

Well, the giant asteroid would likely explode in the Earth's atmosphere before crashing down to the surface and wiping out an area the size of the land within London's M25. That would kill millions if it hit London but wouldn't do much damage if it hit a dessert.

On the other hand, a tsunami could be started if the rock hit an ocean. The giant mass colliding with Earth would be equal to the force produced by eight million tons of TNT exploding, or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima at the the tail end of World War II.

"It's about 500 times more powerful than the biggest bomb we exploded during World War II," retired Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield said.

[Boffins had been terrified of the space rock]

Boffins had been terrified of the space rock(Image: MetaBallStudios / SWNS)

"So think of the destruction we wrought on each other in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, this is 500 times more powerful than that, just because of the energy of it coming through the atmosphere, causing shockwaves and because of the heating [then] exploding."

How dangerous is this asteroid?

The space rock hitting Earth could trigger everything from earthquakes and tsunamis to an "impact winter", potentially wiping out all human life. YR4 2024 is travelling very fast with a velocity of 10.6 miles (17 kilometres) per second, or 38,028 miles (61,200 kilometers) per hour.

The giant mass colliding with Earth would be equal to the force produced by eight million tons of TNT exploding, or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb the US dropped on Hiroshima at the the tail end of World War II.

"It's about 500 times more powerful than the biggest bomb we exploded during World War II," retired Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield said.

"So think of the destruction we wrought on each other in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, this is 500 times more powerful than that, just because of the energy of it coming through the atmosphere, causing shockwaves and because of the heating [then] exploding."

"It's like a grenade. A grenade is no bigger than your fist, but it can do damage over a wide area. This is a grenade that's 60 meters across."

According to the projections of boffins, the 'city-killer' could strike the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.

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