Grim 'Doomsday' formula calculates exactly when mankind will be wiped out for good

Boffins have been getting red in the face over a statistical equation which claims to be able to predict the exact time humanity will go extinct by using complex 'assumptions'

Dan Grennan Audience Writer

20:43, 17 Jun 2026

[Ruins of a city. Apocalyptic landscape.3d illustration concept]

An equation has named the 'exact date' the world will end(Image: GETTY)

A controversial statistical formula is being used by boffins to predict the moment humanity will be wiped out for good. The 'doomsday argument' estimates that roughly 117 billion people have lived through human history.

The scientists then assume the folks alive today occupy a random place in humanity's timeline rather than an unusually early one. Under that theory, there is a 95% chance that the 117 billion people who already walked Earth equate to just 5% of the humans who will ever exist.

Based off the mathematical fact that 100% is 20 times bigger than 5%, the boffins then take the 117 billion figure and multiply it by 20. Meaning they are left with the estimated maximum number of human who will ever exist 2.34 trillion people.

[Nuclear missiles present a clear risk]

Nuclear missiles present a clear risk(Image: Getty Images/iStockphoto)

Using current birth rates and trends, humanity will reach this number in roughly 17,100 years. Proponents of the theory argue that humanity has 95% chance of dying out before all that time passes as it represents a statistical upper limit.

However, the 'doomsday argument' remains a highly controversial theory with many boffins rejecting it. Critics say the assumptions are overly simplistic and ignore the seemingly endless list of threats to humanity.

Others say humanity could easily beat the calculations and live for millions of years if we develop new technologies and/or colonize other planets. The argument is based on what the Copernican Principle, the idea that humans do not occupy a special place in the universe.

It comes as a Nobel Prize-winning physicist has delivered a chilling forecast for when humanity might face extinction and it is much closer than most would anticipate. David Gross is an American theoretical physicist and string theorist who, in 2004, together with Frank Wilczek and Hugh David Politzer, received the Nobel Prize in Physics for discovering asymptotic freedom.

[WW3 could also pose a threat to humanity ]

WW3 could also pose a threat to humanity (Image: Getty Images)

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In his evaluation, David who recently received the $3 million (approximately 2,220,000) Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics highlighted the dangers presented by nuclear conflict and the unstoppable rise of artificial intelligence (AI).

During a recent discussion about physics, David was asked whether humanity would be closer to achieving a unified theory within 50 years. His answer was grim.

He told LiveScience: "Currently, I spend part of my time trying to tell people ... that the chances of you living 50 [more] years are very small. Due to the danger of nuclear war, you have about 35 years."

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