gh-115727: Reduce confidence even on 100% predicted jumps - #115748
Merged
gvanrossum merged 3 commits intoFeb 22, 2024
Merged
Conversation
Copy link
Copy Markdown
Member
Sorry, something went wrong.
Copy link
Copy Markdown
|
Rather than scaling arbitrarily by 90%, it could be a good idea to use Laplace's Law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession) to estimate the confidence. |
Sorry, something went wrong.
Copy link
Copy Markdown
Member
Author
|
I don't know that something like Laplace applies in this case. But mostly I can't follow the math. |
Sorry, something went wrong.
markshannon
approved these changes
Feb 22, 2024
markshannon
left a comment
Copy link
Copy Markdown
Member
There was a problem hiding this comment.
Looks good.
Sorry, something went wrong.
woodruffw
pushed a commit
to woodruffw-forks/cpython
that referenced
this pull request
Mar 4, 2024
…on#115748) The theory is that even if we saw a jump go in the same direction the last 16 times we got there, we shouldn't be overly confident that it's still going to go the same way in the future. This PR makes it so that in the extreme cases, the confidence is multiplied by 0.9 instead of remaining unchanged. For unpredictable jumps, there is no difference (still 0.5). For somewhat predictable jumps, we interpolate.
diegorusso
pushed a commit
to diegorusso/cpython
that referenced
this pull request
Apr 17, 2024
…on#115748) The theory is that even if we saw a jump go in the same direction the last 16 times we got there, we shouldn't be overly confident that it's still going to go the same way in the future. This PR makes it so that in the extreme cases, the confidence is multiplied by 0.9 instead of remaining unchanged. For unpredictable jumps, there is no difference (still 0.5). For somewhat predictable jumps, we interpolate.
LukasWoodtli
pushed a commit
to LukasWoodtli/cpython
that referenced
this pull request
Jan 22, 2025
…on#115748) The theory is that even if we saw a jump go in the same direction the last 16 times we got there, we shouldn't be overly confident that it's still going to go the same way in the future. This PR makes it so that in the extreme cases, the confidence is multiplied by 0.9 instead of remaining unchanged. For unpredictable jumps, there is no difference (still 0.5). For somewhat predictable jumps, we interpolate.
This file contains hidden or bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Sign up for free
to join this conversation on GitHub.
Already have an account?
Sign in to comment
Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.This suggestion is invalid because no changes were made to the code.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is closed.Suggestions cannot be applied while viewing a subset of changes.Only one suggestion per line can be applied in a batch.Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.Applying suggestions on deleted lines is not supported.You must change the existing code in this line in order to create a valid suggestion.Outdated suggestions cannot be applied.This suggestion has been applied or marked resolved.Suggestions cannot be applied from pending reviews.Suggestions cannot be applied on multi-line comments.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is queued to merge.Suggestion cannot be applied right now. Please check back later.
The theory is that even if we saw a jump go in the same direction the last 16 times we got there, we shouldn't be overly confident that it's still going to go the same way in the future. This PR makes it so that in the extreme cases, the confidence is multiplied by 0.9 instead of remaining unchanged. For unpredictable jumps, there is no difference (still 0.5). For somewhat predictable jumps, we interpolate.