randomjohn/polls · GitHub

This is a Stan implementation of Drew Linzer's dynamic Bayesian election forecasting model, with some tweaks to incorporate national poll data, pollster house effects, correlated priors on state-by-state election results and comovement of public opinion across states.

The model is presented briefly at the end of report.html.

runmodel.R downloads poll data from the HuffPost Pollster API, processes the data, and runs the Stan model in state and national polls.stan.

report.Rmd is a Rmarkdown document used to automatically generate the graphs/tables/maps in report.html and relies on graphs.R.